Rising Oil Price Takes Heavy Toll on JPY and EUR


  It was concerned that the gradual aggravation of pandemic in the world this year would wrought havoc on shipping and tourism and end the increasing oil. However, the oil keeps going up without suffering from a bear market. It gives the credit to the effort of the OPEC+ that their slow way of oil production like squeezing toothpaste results in that the demand of oil exceeds supply. Meanwhile, the inventory of the US decreases continuously, indicating the situation in oil market that supply falls short of demand .

  Chinese government cracked down cryptocurrency minging machine this year for its high power consumption and increasing the demand of electricity in China. Worried about the deficiency of electricity, especially the bad condition in October, the government determined to take related measures, boosting the price of coal and natural gas used to electric power generation, as well as the oil price. So far, the rising of energy price results from the imbalance between demand and supply, instead of the war.

  The future price trend of coal, natural gas and oil depends on whether the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere in winter will be lower. It is believe that the winter this year may be colder according to the recent reports by media that the temperature suddenly dropped in China. The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) states that La Nina makes the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere lower than the normal level, therefore the electric power demand is expected to increase for warmth. Thats why it is estimated that the future energy price will be bullish again in the financial market.

  The rise in energy price is conducive to Canada, an energy exporter, and its currency, while brings adverse side effect on the industry in Japan and Germany, two global major car producers, which can be seen from their industrial data. In addition, it also leads to the weak JPY and EUR recently.

  Besides, the rising energy price will not only lead to a high rate of inflation, but add the odds of interest rate hike by the US in advance, further making the US 10-year treasury yield keep jumping. It is no doubt that the increase in bond interest will widen the bond spreads between the US and Japan and Germany, bolstering the USD exchange against JPY and EUR. Generally speaking, the increasing energy price has a positive influence on crude oil, stocks, ETF, US treasury yield and Canada dollar, but a negative effect on JPY and EUR in a long term.

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