Abstract: The RMB remains strong in the short term, and the USDCNH operation is dominated by high altitude.
Overview
Trend: down
Admission: high altitude
Target bits: 6.300/6.255
Stop Loss: 6.410
Since February, although the demand for seasonal rigid foreign exchange settlement has declined, the overall trend of RMB has been stable and on the strong side.
Fundamentals
In the long run, as the epidemic gradually improves and the global supply chain tends to recover, China’s exports may decline, the demand for RMB settlement will decline, and the monetary policy differences between China and the United States will increase. In the future, the RMB will face depreciation pressure.
However, at this stage, China’s ability to export and attract foreign investment is still strong. Especially under the influence of factors such as the tension between Russia and Ukraine, the short-term RMB still has certain risk-averse attributes. Generally speaking, the RMB will remain strong for a period of time.
technical
From the daily chart, USDCNH is still showing a downward trend, and the price is close to the bottom range of 6.253-6.352 four years ago. In view of the support of the easing policies of the Chinese government and the central bank, we do not want the RMB to rise too quickly. In the future, the RMB may enter the Bottom-up stage.
From the 4H chart, USDCNH rebounded weakly, and there is a possibility of further down to the 6.300 integer mark.
Downside support levels: 6.300, 6.253
Upside resistance: 6.350, 6.400
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