The US dollar is currently on a strong positive movement following the consideration for imminent tapering disclosed by Fed Chair – Powell during the last week's session. With the news of the outcome of the German Federal election to be announced this week; a strong volatility is expected from EURUSD with greater probability to the downside. Gold is expected to decline further with the imminent increase in interest rate. All eyes are on Crude Oil Currently sitting on a strong resistance at $73.84.
Fundamental Analysis and Forecast for EURUSD.
A strong volatility is expected to occur on the prices of EURUSD this week with the release of the outcome of the German Federal elections. The common expectation is a sharp decline. Aside this, there are equally a lot of other Economic events to affect this pair (EURUSD) this new week. For instance, the German and French consumer confidence figures are to be released on Tuesday, followed by Eurozone sentiment numbers on Wednesday. Next will be the inflation data for France and Germany to be released on Thursday and then the Eurozone as a whole on Friday. The data from these Economic activities is expected to weigh down on Euro especially with the consideration that the talk for the tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank remains far away in the future. The US dollar is therefore expected to outshine Euro in strength this new week following the admission by Powell last week that tapering was imminent for the US Fed Reserve. We expect further pullback on EURUSD to the next support at $1.12360.
Fundamental Analysis and Forecast for Gold: General outlook is bearish.
During the last week Fed meeting, Powell had pointed out that the conditions for tapering have been fully met. Hence the committee were set to provide the format for tapering from the next FOMC meeting in November. According to Powell, if the economy remains on track then the tapering of asset purchases could be concluded by the middle of next year. This would mean a reduction in the rate of bond purchase by the Federal Reserve leading to an increase interest rate. This will definitely favor the US dollar and Weaken the demand for the precious metal gold. Equally with the global gradual decrease in the Covid cases, investors will be all the more swayed to divert to other investments involving dollar rather than storing their wealth in Gold. Hence, we expect a further decline for Gold down to the support at $1707.00 in the coming weeks. The general outlook for the precious metal is bearish.
Crude Oil: Currently overbought and at a strong resistance.
Crude Oil has sowered higher last week with great improvement in Economic development following Powell's Speech and the happy decline in the new cases of the general pandemic. Crude Oil has sowered higher and is currently overbought judging from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The price is currently on a strong resistance at $73.84 per barrel. There are currently strong Fundamental back up that the price may break this current resistance.
On Tuesday for instance, OPEC is expected to release its annual world oil outlook. Members from the cartel recently noted that shortfalls in natural gas are forcing energy consumers to look for substitutes, such as oil. As such, OPEC could boost demand expectations. Thereby increasing the demand for Crude oil. Equally, the next meeting of the coalition is scheduled for October 4th. However, should the price fail to break this current resistance this week, then we may see a retest of the previous support at $69.00. Should the bulls succeed in breaking this present resistance then look for further upsides at $85.30
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