Gold and Silver Hold Breath for Jackson Hole, ETF Outflows Accelerate

  •   Gold and silver prices held steadily ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium

  •   Investors are eyeing Jerome Powell‘s speech on Friday for clues about the Fed’s tapering timeline

  •   The worlds largest gold ETF saw accelerated outflows in the recent weeks, underscoring downward momentum


  Gold prices extended lower during Wednesday‘s APAC session, testing an immediate support level at $1,785. Bullion traders are eyeing the Jackson Hole symposiumfor clues about the Fed’s tapering timeline. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech at the Fed‘s annual economic symposium on Friday. Global investors will watch closely whether or not the central bank is planning to scale back the $120 billion per month asset purchase by the end of this year. The market doesn’t seem to be too concerned about that however, as the DXY US Dollar index fell 4 days in a row.

  The worlds largest gold ETF – SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) – saw three consecutive weeks of net outflow in August. This suggests that more sellers are returning to the bullion market as the Fed is drawing closer to scale back asset purchases. The number of GLD shares outstanding decreased 4.6 million last week, after dropping 2.9 and 1.4 million in the prior two weeks respectively. Gold prices and the number of outstanding GLD shares have exhibited a strong positive correlation in the past (chart below). Therefore, an accelerated pace of redemption to the ETF may be viewed as a bearish signal for prices.

  Gold Prices vs. GLD ETF Shares Outstanding – Past 12 Months


  Looking ahead, the GfK consumer confidence data dominates the economic docket alongside US GDP and initial weekly jobless claims. Find out more from theDailyFX economic calendar.

  Technically, gold prices pulled back to a key support level of $1,785 – the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Holding above this level may open the door for further upside potential with an eye on $1,810. A breakdown however, may intensify near-term selling pressure and expose the $1,750 support. The MACD indicator formed a bullish crossover and trended higher, suggesting that upward momentum isbuilding.

  Gold – Daily Chart


  As for silver,prices breached below a trendline support and plunged to a key support level at $22.90 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Prices have likely formed a bullish “Double Bottom” chart pattern after rebounding twice from the key support. The overall trend remains bearish-biased, as suggested by the consecutive lower highs and lower lows. The MACD indicator formed a bullish crossover beneath the neutral midpoint, suggesting that buying power may be building.

  Silver – Daily Chart


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